On his final visit to the UK, President Obama shared his views on the Brexit which supported Britain remaining in the EU. He stated that if the UK was to leave the European Union on the 23rd June, any new trade agreements between the US and the UK could take years to be agreed. Obama’s comments clearly showed support for PM David Cameron to stay in the EU, and this saw the Pound gain ground from his comments. However, this was not taken too well by other MP’s such as UKIP’s Nigel Farrage, who stated that the US President’s comments are “utter tosh”, adding that Obama’s comments are not of any worth as his Presidency is coming to an end.
Today is very light on data releases with only the German Ifo Business Climate being released this morning with a slightly better reading of 107.1 from the previous 106.7 figure. From the US, the New Home Sales figure will be released, which is forecast to post a reading of 521K.
US data will dominate the markets as we gain more insight into Consumer Confidence. The first data release will be the monthly Durable Goods Order which is forecast to improve from the previous -3.0% reading to a positive 1.9%. The Core Durable Goods Order which excludes transportation items is expected to also improve to 0.6%. Following this, the CB Consumer Confidence, which shows consumer spending is forecast to remain barely unchanged from the last 96.2 reading, which could have a positive effect on the Dollar. Also the US Flash Services PMI figure will be posted just after lunch.
The UK’s first reading for 2016 Q1 will be seen early on Wednesday morning, expected to come in at 0.4%. As this is the first reading it could result in more volatility for the Pound, if the figure is worse or better than markets consensus. Following this, the focus will then turn to the US as the Fed rate decision and FOMC statement is released. There are no expectations for action to be taken by the Fed in this meeting, the attention will be on how the members see the current economy and will look to see if the statement is of a hawkish or dovish tone. The markets will also watch to see whether the Fed are still talking about implementing a potential rate increase and when this is likely to happen.
A high piece of economic data will be released in the form of the US advance GDP Q1. This is the initial reading of 2016 first quarter for the US and the reading is expected to be 0%, if this is seen it will suggest that the economy has started on the right foot. As most are expecting a further rate increase from the US, the GDP is an important gauge to see if there is still the chance of this happening in 2016. Also the weekly US Unemployment Claims figure is released in the afternoon.
A host of second tier data will be seen in the morning with attention on the Euro Flash CPI figure. As the ECB try to tackle deflationary pressures, this yearly figure will be watched by the markets to see if the current efforts of the central bank are working. Inflation for the single currency zone is currently at 0%, but if this falls again to -0.1% as forecasted, this could put further pressure on the Euro. In the afternoon, the Chicago PMI and the revised Universtiy of Michigan Consumer Sentiment figures will be posted, with both gauges expected to fall pretty much in line with previous reading.