Politics continues to dictate price action

Yesterday’s markets

29th November 2016

  • EUR M3 Money Supply y/y: 4.4%
  • EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
  • JPY Household Spending y/y: 0.4
  • CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks
  • JPY Unemployment Rate: 3.0%

Politics continued to dominate headlines yesterday as markets reacted to the French Republican nomination and some outlandish remarks from US President-elect Donald Trump. Firstly, former Prime Minister Francios Fillon won the French Republican nomination for next year’s presidential election. Conservative Francios Fillon won the vote by a large margin and is now the front runner to win the vote as the left remains split over their candidate. In other news, President-elect Donald Trump tweeted that he would have won the popular vote if “millions” of illegal votes were excluded.

OPEC came under the spotlight yesterday as it tried to rescue a deal to cut oil production. The Saudi oil minister has hinted at possibly leaving this week’s OPEC meeting without a deal adding to speculation that negotiations will break down once more. Oil continued its volatile movement, hitting a low yesterday of 45.15. The OPEC deal now hangs in the balance ahead of this week’s Vienna meeting.

Today’s markets

28th November 2016

  • EUR German Prelim CPI m/m
  • USD Prelim GDP q/q
  • USD CB Consumer Confidence
  • NZD RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks
  • NZD RBNZ Financial Stability Report

Today’s focus will be on the US as the second reading of their Q3 GDP will be released, with growth anticipated to show a slight increase from the first posting of 2.9%. If the 2.9% is posted as expected this will no doubt add fuel to the fire for a rate rise in December by the Federal Reserve. Consumer Confidence is released later in the afternoon and is expected to also show confidence in rising again. Germany’s monthly inflation figure is posted in the morning but will be overshadowed by the higher tier US data being released.