Quiet start to the week but talk about a Fed hike gains momentum

Yesterday’s markets

21st July 2015

  • CAD Wholesale Sales m/m: -1.0%
  • AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
  • JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

In terms of economic data it was a particularly quiet start to the week. Sterling fell for the first time in six days against the Euro, paring gains from its best week since 2009. Last week, Sterling appreciated to the strongest level since August 2008 after Bank of England governor Mark Carney used two public appearances and signaled that rates could increase at the turn of the year.

Meanwhile, the Euro held near a two-month low against the US Dollar due to the inevitable diverging monetary policies between the Federal Reserve and other central banks. However, the single currency was still stronger versus 13 of its 16 most-traded peers after Greece confirmed it would make payments due to the European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund. Greek banks reopened Monday, three weeks after they were shuttered to prevent economic collapse.

In the US, St Louis Fed member Bullard, a voter in 2016, told an audience that he thought that a September rate hike was a better than 50/50 chance. He also argued the case for the Fed getting ‘ahead of the curve’.

Today’s markets

20th July 2015

  • CHF Trade Balance
  • UK Public Sector Net Borrowing
  • AUD CPI q/q
  • RBA Gov Stevens Speaks

With discussion starting to arise about a UK rate hike around the turn of the year, the market will be paying attention to data from the region. Today we have the UK Public Sector Borrowing Figures due for release ahead of the key BoE minutes on Wednesday.