The spotlight is on Cameron's tax affairs

Monday

A busy start to the week as David Cameron comes under scrutiny over his tax affairs. The Prime Minister will need to face his peers in Parliament which may lead to Sterling volatility.

  • BoJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
  • US FOMC Dudley Speaks
  • US Fed Announcement

Tuesday 

Inflation from the UK will be the main focus of the markets today as economists’ wait to see if there is any improvement on the current 0.3% figure.  The BoE’s inflation target is 2% and for any rate rise to be implanted this is still well off the desired mark.  Market census is for the gauge to remain constant at 0.3%, but as last week saw the Pound under pressure and falling against the Euro and the Dollar, another disappointing result could again see Sterling being sold.

  • UK CPI y/y
  • UK Core CPI y/y

Wednesday 

The monthly retail sales is posted from the US, with expectations of sales to return to a positive reading and for core retail sales to also increase to a positive reading.  As both these sales readings have been near or below zero since the turn of the year, positive figures seen here could give the Dollar some support.  From the Eurozone the mom industrial production figure is set to fall to a minus 0.6%.

  • China Trade Balance
  • Euro Industrial Production m/m
  • US Retail Sales m/m
  • US Core Retail Sales m/m
  • US Beige Book

Thursday 

The busiest day of the week in terms of data being released.  Following the inflation release from the UK earlier this week, the Eurozone posts its yoy figure in the morning and is again set to remain in deflation territory at -0.1%.  The US then follows suit in the afternoon with their mom CPI gauge, with expectations set for prices to see an overall increase back to a positive figure.  The ideal level for inflation is around the 2% mark, and as the price of oil and energy has dropped this has weighed heavy on the CPI figures across the globe, thus cooling any rate rises to be seen while there is no price pressures.  From the UK, the Bank of England is set to remain constant by keeping rates on hold at 0-9 and likewise with current asset purchases. 

  • UK Rate Vote
  • UK Monetary Policy summary
  • Euro CPI y/y
  • US CPI m/m

Friday 

China takes centre stage in the morning as they release their Q1 GDP for 2016.  Markets will look for any signs of a recovery in the world’s second largest economy with estimates that the economy expanded by 6.7%, which if seen will show a moderate slowdown from the 6.8% in December.  The US Industrial production mom sector is released and set to remain below zero but to increase from the previous -0.5%.  This is then followed by the University of Michigan Sentiment which is again to see consumers sentiment increase yet again to 92.3.

  • China Q1 GDP
  • US Industrial Production m/m
  • US UoM Consumer Sentiment