Sterling on the rampage

Yesterday’s markets

19th May 2016

  • GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y: 2.0%
  • GBP Claimant Count Change: -2.4K
  • GBP Unemployment Rate: 5.1%
  • EUR Final CPI y/y: -0.2%
  • USD Crude Oil Inventories: 1.3M
  • USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • GBP MPC Member Haldane Speaks
  • AUD Employment Change: 10.8K
  • AUD Unemployment Rate: 5.7%

Sterling was given a big boost yesterday after a raft of bullish labour data was released and the latest Brexit poll showed a substantial lead for the ‘remain’ camp. The latest IPOS Mori Brexit poll was published yesterday morning in the London Evening Standard. The poll showed the ‘remain’ camp are in the lead with 55%, with only 37% voting to leave and 8% still undecided. The London Evening Standard said the drastic change in numbers is mainly due to a marked shift among Tory supporters. The Tory swing suggests the Prime Minister’s intense campaigning is having a significant impact on his party’s followers. Sterling rose over a percent against both the Dollar and Euro after the news.

A raft of UK labour data was also released yesterday morning. Average earnings and the claimant count change both exceeded market expectations yesterday. Average earnings posted a decent 2.0%, whilst the claimant count fell back into negative territory at -2.4k. However, the jobless rate remained sticky 5.1% adding to further evidence that the jobs market could be cooling off.

Today’s markets

18th May 2016

  • GBP Retail Sales m/m
  • EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
  • CAD Wholesale Sales m/m
  • USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
  • USD Unemployment Claims
  • USD FOMC Member Fischer Speaks
  • ALL G7 Meetings

A quieter day expected, as we enter the back end of the week, the only release to note this side of the Atlantic comes out of the UK as the monthly retail sales gauge is posted.  Retail sales are expected to rebound in April to 0.7% from March’s disappointing -1.3%.  In the afternoon the US release the weekly unemployment claims figure and at the same time as the Philly Fed manufacturing Index, with a positive reading expected for April.