Strong US labour data boosts a 2015 rate hike
Friday afternoon saw the markets focus on the release of the labour data from the US. With the Fed now pointing again to a possible rate rise being seen in the last meeting for this year (16th December), one of the main gauges being watched is the non-farm employment figure, which came out at 271k, way above market expectations of just 180k. Along with this bullish non-farm number was also a drop in the unemployment rate, which came in as forecasted at 5% from 5.1%. After this data hit the wires, the Greenback made gains against all major currencies, adding further weight for the Fed to act.
Looking to the week ahead, it will be a fairly quite start after last week’s high tier data releases.
Monday 9th November 2015
The only thing of note today is the start of the Eurogroup meetings which is held in Brussels, where finance ministers from each Euro member state attend and discuss all financial issues with the president of the ECB also in attendance.
- Eurogroup meetings
Tuesday 10th November 2015
The day starts with another insight into China, as the release of their CPI yearly figure is posted in the early hours. The gauge is expected to fall to 1.5% from 1.6%, and with concerns over global growth slowing this will show how the world’s second largest economy is coping. From the US, Fed member Charles Evans speaks at a university in Chicago, where markets will watch for any clues on the Feds intentions come December’s meeting.
- China CPI y/y
- China PPI y/y
- US FOMC Evans Speaks
Wednesday 11th November 2015
Another early morning release out of China with the industrial production figure. Although the forecast is for production to increase to 5.8%, anything under this will again point to further warnings that a slowdown is still ringing true, adding further to the concerns of a global economic outlook. From the UK, the release of the unemployment rate is expected to remain sticky at 5.4%, along with the release of the claimant count which is expected to drop to 1.6K. The head of the BoE Mark Carney, speaks at a press conference at 11.30am about the inflation report. Volatility will be seen here for the Pound, as markets gain further insight into when a rate rise may be on the cards for the UK.
- China Industrial Production y/y
- UK Average Earnings
- UK Claimant Count Change
- BOE Governor Mark Carney Speaks
Thursday 12th November 2015
The focus will be on the US as more labour data is released, with the weekly unemployment claims followed by the Jolts job openings. With the Fed chair Janet Yellen, speaking in Washington any insight given here on a rate rise could see volatility for the Dollar. Later in the evening, the attention falls on the ECB president Mario Draghi, as he takes center stage speaking in Brussels on monetary policies and all will be trying to decipher any further clues as to the possible expansion of QE.
- US Unemployment Claims
- US Jolts Job Openings
- US FED Chair Janet Yellen Speaking
- EUR ECB President Mario Draghi
Friday 13th November 2015
Last day of this week sees a raft of Eurozone first readings of Q3 GDP being released, with the overall reading expected to come in at 0.4%. The markets attention then shifts to the US as the retail sales monthly reading is posted, shortly followed by the University of Michigan consumer sentiment where the gauge is expected to increase.
- EUR Flash GDP q/q
- US Retail Sales m/m
- US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment