Summer liquidity could cause high volatility

Yesterday’s markets

12th August 2016

  • CAD NHPI m/m: 0.1%
  • USD Unemployment Claims: 266K
  • USD Import Prices m/m: 0.1%
  • USD Mortgage Delinquencies: 4.66%
  • NZD Retail Sales q/q: 2.3%
  • NZD Core Retail Sales q/q: 2.6%
  • CNY Industrial Production y/y: 6.0%
  • CNY Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y: 8.1%

The Greenback remained buoyant yesterday, despite the markets lowering expectations for a Fed rate hike and the profit-taking seen after last week’s bullish Non-Farm payrolls. The systematic flow is still relatively mooted, however, yesterday we saw some Sterling selling against the Euro and Dollar, with GBP/USD testing the post-Brexit low once again. Overall, it was a quiet day for the G10 currencies as little data was published.

Early this morning, the world’s second largest economy posted their Industrial Production figures. Industrial production posted a worse than expected 6%. With the slowdown already seen in China, this figure adds further evidence that the World’s Manufacturing powerhouse continues to struggle.

Today’s markets

11th August 2016

  • EUR German Prelim GDP q/q
  • EUR Flash GDP q/q
  • USD Core Retail Sales m/m
  • USD PPI m/m
  • USD Retail Sales m/m
  • USD Core PPI m/m
  • USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

Firstly, on today’s economic calendar there will be the release of Germany’s Q2 GDP report, where growth is due to drop to 0.3% from 0.7%. This will be followed by the main Eurozone Q2 GDP second reading, which is forecast to remain at 0.3%. From the US, the Retail Sales monthly figure is published and expected to fall to 0.34% from the previous 0.6%.