Trump is the new US President

Yesterday’s markets

9th November 2016

  • EUR ECOFIN Meetings
  • GBP Manufacturing Production m/m: 0.6%
  • CAD Building Permits m/m: -7.0%
  • USD Presidential Election
  • USD Mortgage Delinquencies
  • CAD Gov Council Member Schembri Speaks

The US election results were underway on Tuesday morning with Dixville Notch the first to report, solidly in favour of Hilary Clinton, (by the princely total of four votes to two).  Of the New Hampshire towns to report early, the overall result was in Trump’s favour - perhaps a sign of what was to come.

As the East Coast polling stations closed, there was an initial feeling of inevitability, with most states going to form, and initial voting suggesting Hilary Clinton had more votes in key counties in the pivotal state of Florida.  The markets started to think the race might be over before it had begun - without Florida, it would be very difficult for Donald Trump to find his way to the White House.

Today’s markets

8th November 2016

  • EUR EU Economic Forecasts
  • USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • NZD Official Cash Rate
  • GBP MPC MPC Member Haldane Speaks
  • GBP Goods Trade Balance
  • NZD RBNZ Press Conference

Donald Trump has been elected as the next US President in a shock Brexit-like upset. The Republican won with 278 Electoral votes (270 needed), with Clinton at 218. The battleground states of Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania were all hard fought with Trump winning the majority. The shock wins of Ohio, Florida and North Carolina added a combined total of 62 Electoral votes to Trumps campaign and have pathed the way for the Republican to the White House. In his victory speech Trump told America "It is time for us to come together as one united people". Clinton phoned Donald Trump to concede shortly after 6am.  Republicans have therefore kept control of both the Senate and the House in this monumental general election.

Markets continue into free fall with the Mexican Peso hitting record low and safe haven assets continue to surge higher as Trump gets into the White House. The London future market has fallen over four percent, while US stock markets also declined 5%. Japan's government and its central bank are now schedule to hold crisis talks today. Emerging markets continue to be extremely fragile as Trumps policy of curtailing NAFTA as well as immigration reform and building a wall looks more and more likely.

Investors will continue to digest the shock US election results. The Mexican Peso will be a currency to watch, as recently it has acted as somewhat of a barometer.