Tsipras hits out, FOMC rate hike?

Yesterday’s markets

17th June 2015

  • UK CPI y/y: 0.1%
  • UK PPI Input m/m: -0.9%
  • UK RPI y/y: 1.0%
  • German ZEW Economic Sentiment: 31.5
  • US Building Permits: 1.28m

Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras criticised Greece’s creditors yesterday, accusing the IMF of “criminal” responsibility for his country’s predicament. The Greek PM again gave no sign of backing down in the Greek bailout standoff. This time he blasted the IMF’s adherence to austerity and accused the ECB of using tactics that weaken to “financial asphyxiation”. The blame game continues and Tsipras comments only hinder the chances of a negotiation between the Greek government and its creditors in the IMF, ECB and European Commission.

Today’s markets

16th June 2015

  • UK Average Earnings Index 3m/y
  • UK Claimant Count Change
  • UK MPC Official Bank Rate Votes
  • UK Unemployment Rate
  • BoE Gov Carney Speaks
  • FOMC Economic Projections
  • FOMC Statement
  • US Federal Funds Rate

The FOMC release their latest policy statement followed by a Janet Yellen led press conference. Markets will be closely monitoring officials language to gain an insight into when the Fed will raise interest rates. We expect a batch of revised forecasts for economic growth, the labour market and inflation from the Fed as well.

Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen and her colleagues are adamant that interest rates will rise in the world’s largest economy this year. Strong labour data and a recent return to growth in retail sales may not be enough for a Fed rate hike this month but the bullish data will certainly act as a catalyst further down the line. We are now only left with four possible opportunities for the Fed to raise their main benchmark rate this year if tonight’s meeting goes as planned, the remaining meetings are in; July, September, October and December.

The BoE releases the minutes of June’s Monetary policy meeting. The meeting was as markets expected with no change in the Central Banks benchmark rate and QE programme. In May, nine members voted unanimously to keep rates at record lows of 0.5% with two members citing that their decision was “finely balanced”, will these two members vote yes this time round?

Also on today’s docket is the UK unemployment rate which is forecast to remain sticky at 5.5%. Unemployment rate is an important signal of overall economic health as it is directly correlated with consumer spending, the UK’s main driver of growth.