UK election continues to dominate Sterling headlines

Yesterday’s markets

14th April 2015

  • CNY Trade balance
  • EUR Italian industrial production
  • NZD NZIER Business confidence

Yesterday’s economic headlines were dominated by some further disappointing trade data released from China and the US where unsurprisingly, Hilary Clinton announced that she is running for presidency. We also gained further insight into the UK Labour Party’s manifesto as Ed Miliband spoke at Granada Studios in Manchester.

Firstly, opposition Labour leader Miliband tried to overturn a damaging perception that his party cannot be trusted on the economy and unveiled a manifesto that shows, according to Labour, that it has the most responsible plan to manage Britain’s finances. Labour have low ratings regarding its economic credibility and Miliband today tried to reverse that. The UK faces its most unpredictable election since the 1970's with most polls showing Labour and Conservatives at a deadlock. This political uncertainty is having a heavy effect on the Pound.

Surprisingly weak data from China was released early yesterday morning, which weighed heavily on UK mining stocks. Chinese exports were forecast to rise 12% but instead dropped by 15% in March as Chinese imports saw the biggest decline since the global financial crisis in 2009, increasing concern that Chinese economic growth is slowing.

Today’s markets

13th April 2015

  • GBP CPI
  • GBP Core CPI
  • USD Core retail sales
  • USD PPI
  • USD Retail sales

Today’s docket will be dominated by inflation to and from the pond. UK CPI is released this morning and forecast to remain anaemic whilst PPI from the US is expected to return to growth at 0.3%. We also have US retail sales released this afternoon where a bounce back is due, from -0.6 to 1.1%.