The UK makes history
The UK made history last week as Prime Minister Theresa May officially triggered Article 50. May handed the letter to the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk invoking Article 50, an act which has now started two-years of bitter divorce talks with the EU. May said that there is “no turning back” as she formally triggered Article 50.
Across the pond, Fed speakers continued to address the markets. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer suggested that two more rate hikes this year “seem about right”. Fed Chair Janet Yellen also spoke last week, signalling that the US labour market still has many challenges on the horizon. Finally, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said last week that the Fed should hike rates three more times this year, a call that is more hawkish than the two-hike line that has been held by other Fed members; notably Stanley Fischer mentioned above.
This week we have a jam packed economic calendar. We have key US labour data released, in the form of the ADP and all important non-farm payrolls. Also from the States, the FOMC minutes from the most recent meeting will be released. Whilst in the UK, we have a raft of PMI data economists will look forward to analysing.
We start the week with two key pieces of secondary sector data from the US and UK. Manufacturing in both the UK and US are expected to continue expanding. UK manufacturing is forecast at 55.1, whilst US ISM Manufacturing PMI is due at 57.2.
- UK Manufacturing PMI
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI
A relatively light economic docket Tuesday. The only piece of notable data released will be from the UK as the second of three PMI’s are released. Construction PMI is expected to remain above the 50 mark, indicating expansionary territory.
- UK Construction PMI
Arguably the busiest day of the week. Firstly, the UK release their Services PMI reading, forecast to expand to 53.5. The tertiary sector accounts for roughly 80% of UK growth, so this figure will be closely watched Wednesday morning. In the afternoon, the US release their services reading in the form of ISM non-manufacturing PMI and an early indicator of Friday’s all important Non-Farm payroll. Finally, we finish the day with the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting.
- UK Services PMI
- US ADP Non-Farm
- US ISM Non-Manufacturing
- FOMC Meeting Minutes
The US release another high tier piece of labour data on Thursday. US unemployment claims which measure the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance is forecast to improve to 251k this week.
- US Jobless Claims
A busy end to the week as we gain high tier data from both the US and UK. Firstly, UK manufacturing production is expected to bounce back from negative territory to 0.3%. Shortly after, a raft of high tier labour data from the States is released. Unemployment in the US is forecast to remain at 4.7%, whilst the all-important Non-Farm payrolls is expected to post 176k.
- UK Manufacturing Production
- US Non-Farm Employment
- US Unemployment Rate