Only two weeks after the devastating terrorist attacks in Manchester, terrorists targeted a busy London area on Saturday night. A rented van was used to mow down pedestrians on London Bridge, before the attackers left the vehicle and continued on foot, stabbing several people in the nearby area and pubs. Within eight minutes of the police receiving a call of the attack, the terrorists were shot dead in the street by police. An emergency Cobra committee meeting was called Sunday morning and election campaigning was suspended for the day. The latest election polls were also released over the weekend, with the Conservatives lead being cut to only one point, a cut of 11 points in over two weeks.
Last Friday we took a quick break from politics to focus on US labour data and it did not disappoint. Non-farm payrolls and the headline unemployment rate were both wildly outside their forecasts. Non-farms registered a much worse than expected 138k against 181k. However, the jobless rate surprisingly dropped again, this time to 4.3% as it registered a fresh decade low. The contradicting labour figures left the Greenback relatively stable, as mixed results led to a muted reaction. The US are still expected to raise rates in June, with market probability now at 91%.
Busy start to the week with the release of the UK Services PMI, expected at 55.1, the reading posted a worse than expected 53.8. Sterling weakened after this release as the figure makes up 80% of the UK GDP. The Eurozone will also be releasing several Final Services PMIs, including France, Italy, Spain, Germany as well as the Eurozone as a whole. This is the second of two versions of this data, therefore this has somewhat already been priced into the market. The day will finish with the ISM non-manufacturing PMI from the US.
Further Eurozone data released on Tuesday with the posting of the Retail PMI and Retail Sales figures. Across the pond, the JOLTS Job openings will be released in the afternoon.
Data is fairly light on Wednesday with the only high tier data released being the Crude Oil Inventories.
Thursday is the biggest day of the week with a series of data coming out from both the Eurozone and the US. The Eurozone will be releasing both the revised GDP figure and the minimum bid rate. The ECB will also be holding a Draghi-led press conference. In the US, the weekly unemployment claims figure will be released and back in the UK, the public will be going to the polls.
The UK will be the main focus on Friday, with the UK election results being released in the early hours of morning. The first result is expected to be announced before midnight. Between 3am-6am most of the results will have been released and the new Parliament will be clearer. Market volatility is expected during this time. Also released is the UK manufacturing production figure, which makes up 80% of the total industrial production.