UK unemployment falls but the data is mixed

Yesterday’s markets

12th November 2015

  • CNY Industrial Production y/y: 5.6%
  • CNY Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y: 10.2%
  • UK Average Earnings Index 3m/y: 3.0%
  • UK Claimant Count Change: 3.3k
  • UK Unemployment Rate: 5.3%
  • ECB President Draghi Speaks
  • AUD Employment Change: 58.6k
  • AUD Unemployment Change: 5.9%

As it was Veterans day bank holiday in the US, much of the focus was on the European markets, in particular the UK. The all-important labour data hit the wires a week after the dovish inflation report cooled hopes for an early rate hike. The headline unemployment rate was positive as it fell to a fresh seven year low of 5.3%, surpassing expectations. However, the other metrics were not so positive and maybe one of the reasons the BoE were less than hawkish last week. The claimant count rose by more than expected whilst average earnings dropped and posted their lowest number since Q1 this year. The numbers were still healthy but a stark reminder that the economy is starting to lose some momentum.

Meanwhile, all eyes were on ECB President Draghi who was speaking at the BoE Forum. Many market participants were hoping for further clues on the potential easing measures, stimulus and policy, that the ECB may introduce in December’s meeting. He decided not to discuss these and instead discussed further unity in the union.

Today’s markets

11th November 2015

  • ECB President Draghi Speaks
  • US Unemployment Claims
  • US Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
  • US JOLTS Job Openings
  • US Crude Oil Inventories
  • UK MPC Member Evans Speaks

The main focus of today is in the US as more labour data is set for release;  the weekly unemployment claims followed by the Jolts job openings.  In addition, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is speaking in Washington, any insight given here on a rate rise could see volatility for the Greenback.  Later in the evening the attention falls on the ECB president Mario Draghi, as he takes centre stage speaking in Brussels on monetary policy.  As usual the market will try to decipher his speech for any further clues on the possible expansion of QE and policy tools that could be implemented next month.