Last week we saw the negations between Greece and it creditors continue to rumble on, resulting in the Greek nation missing a schedule payment to the IMF, the first time this has happened since 1970’s from any country. Greece has stated that it will continue to service its debt for as long as possible. The payment will be bundled up with another payment for the month end. However, this very dependent on continued negations with its creditors. Meanwhile, there was positive news from the US as the Non-Farm Payrolls beat forecast posting its highest number in three months. This is probably too late for a potential rate hike in June but it certainly puts all eyes on data for a potential rate hike in September.
Much of the focus on the week ahead will be on US data:-
A fairly quiet day to start the week with the focus being on the G7 meeting and any new headlines or development on the Greek debt situation. In addition the German industrial production figures are set for release.
The main focus of the day will be on the US Jolts job data, this will be the last significant labour market data ahead of the 16th-17th June FOMC meeting. In Yellen’s view, the hiring rate reflects rising confidence on the part of employers whilst the quits rate reflects increased employee confidence in the labour outlook. Improvements in both series would add to the growing amount of evidence that the labor market is very close to normalizing whilst raising hopes of the bulls of a small chance of a rate hike this month.
The busiest day for the week in terms of news. Both the manufacturing and NIESR GDP estimate are set to hit the wires. Historically we have seen price fluctuations at the Annual Mansion House Dinner where both BOE Governor Mark Carney and Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne are due to speak.
The focus will remain on the US as the market continues to decipher data ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. US retail sales will give the market a handle on the confidence of the consumer whilst the weekly jobless claims will be monitored.
US inflation will be in focus today along with consumer sentiment as the market will debate the upcoming FOMC meeting next week. In addition, any newswires surrounding Greece ahead of the weekend will be keenly followed.