US data remains upbeat ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC statement

Yesterday’s markets

28th July 2015

  • German Ifo Business Climate: 108.0
  • EUR M3 Money Supply y/y: 5.0%
  • US Core Durable Goods Orders m/m: 0.8%
  • US Durable Goods Orders m/m: 3.4%

The week started with a bang as economists’ speculated on this week’s big Fed meeting and reacted to another Chinese stock index crash. Firstly shares on China’s Shanghai Composite Index ended the Monday session 8.5% lower, the biggest one day loss since 2007. This follows the recent government intervention that attempted to halt losses on the Chinese exchanges.

US data will be heavily scrutinised this week as markets prepare for the FOMC statement scheduled out this Wednesday. Durable goods rose in June for just the second time this year as US factories begin to gain a foothold after a weak spell. Orders for business equipment climbed 0.9% last month after contracting by 0.4% in May. Orders for all durable goods (goods with a life of at least three years) increased 3.4%, as the aircraft industry received a boost.

The Eurozone’s powerhouse Germany gained an unexpected rebound in business confidence yesterday. German Ifo business climate rose to 108, the first increase in three months as concerns over Greece have simmered down. The reading exceeded expectations and gave the Euro a slight boost yesterday morning.

Today’s markets

27th July 2015

  • UK Prelim GDP q/q
  • CAD RMPI m/m
  • US CB Consumer Confidence
  • JPY Retail Sales y/y

The first reading of Q2 GDP is expected from the UK today, a weaker than expected number could pour more cold water on the expectations of an early rate hike. Last week’s decrease in retails sales was disappointing and posted a negative number. Consumer spending makes up a large part of growth so Sterling could be under threat here. Meanwhile, the FOMC start their two day meeting and US consumer confidence hits the wires.