US election dominates market movement

Yesterday’s markets

28th September 2016

  • EUR M3 Money Supply y/y: 5.1%
  • USD CB Consumer Confidence: 104.1
  • USD FOMC Member Fischer Speaks
  • AUD RBA Assist Gov Edey Speaks

The markets continued to digest and replay the first of three live US election TV debates. They have now switched their focus from a Fed rate rise to the US election, so from here on in we are going to see a higher beta to the ebb and flow of US politics over the next few weeks. The movement in major currencies was relatively muted, however the LATAM currencies were extremely volatile. The Mexican Peso in particular, moved roughly 2% during the debate, as markets swayed towards a Clinton victory. The move could be reflective of the market movements expected over the coming weeks. 

Yesterday’s economic calendar was relatively light, with only one piece of notable data released from the States. CB Consumer Confidence registered an improved figure of 104.1, its highest reading in nearly a decade. The bullish reading signals that the leading indicator of the tertiary sector in the US remains buoyant and helped boost overall growth last month.

Today’s markets

27th September 2016

  • USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
  • USD Durable Goods Orders m/m
  • USD Fed Chair Yellen Testifies
  • USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
  • EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
  • USD Crude Oil Inventories
  • USD FOMC Member George Speaks

Fed Chair Janet Yellen, will be in the spotlight as she testifies on financial services in Washington before the committee. All will look for any clues in her rhetoric as to when rates may be hiked again and the timing of the next increase. The reading for US Monthly Durable Goods Orders is set to hit the wires also, with orders anticipated to slow by -1%. Mario Draghi, the head of the ECB is also set to speak in Berlin about the developments of the Euro area later in the afternoon.