US GDP fuels speculation of a September rate rise

Yesterday’s markets

31st July 2015

  • German Prelim CPI m/m: 0.2%
  • US Advance GDP q/q: 2.3%
  • US Goods Trade Balance: -62.3B
  • US Unemployment Claims: 267K
  • ANZ Business Confidence: -15.3
  • AUD PPI q/q: 0.3%

Yesterday morning, markets continued to digest the previous night’s all-important FOMC statement, a statement that left the door open for a September meeting but also remained very data dependant. Next meeting is scheduled for the middle of September and in that time we have the release of two non-farm payrolls and one more reading of Q2 GDP which the committee will decipher and could potentially influence their decision as well.

The first reading of US Q2 GDP was released yesterday afternoon. The world’s largest economy expanded at a faster pace in the second quarter and managed to post a gain at the start of the year, displaying substantial progress and a reading in line with the FOMC’s view. GDP rose at an annualised rate of 2.3% and a revised 0.6% advance in the first quarter wiping out a previously reported contraction. Following this was the initial jobless claims reading which again posted a better than expected number of 267k; last week’s figure registered its strongest reading since 1973.

Today’s markets

30th July 2015

  • German Retail Sales m/m
  • Euro Unemployment Rate
  • CAD GDP m/m
  • CNY Manufacturing PMI

A slightly tame end to the week but let’s not forget that it is also month end and these flows can cause some erratic price action. That said there is still enough data to keep markets on their toes with high tier releases from the Eurozone and US. From the Eurozone we have the release of the single currency unions unemployment rate and CPI figure, following this, the US will post the Chicago PMI number and revised University of Michigan consumer sentiment.