US Jobs report is the last hurdle for the Fed

The week closed with the markets focused on Fed chair Janet Yellen speaking in Chicago.  Markets were looking for further clarity as to whether rates will be raised this month by the Fed. Janet Yellen indicated that the first rate rise could be seen as early as the 15th, however it is still not certain that the FOMC will pull the trigger. The committee will be looking for inflation and employment to remain in line with their expectations.  

As the Consumer Price index hits the wires on the 15th March, the Unemployment data will be the indicator as to whether the Fed action a rise. This week will now have all watching to see for more indications which point the way to a rate rise. 

Tuesday

Over-night will see the Reserve Bank of Australia release their benchmark rate and statement.  Anything other than what is forecasted could see cause volatility for the AUD.  The rest of the day has little to offer as a very light amount of data is to be released, therefore not a lot of market movement is expected.

  • AUD Rate decision
  • Reserve Bank of Australia statement
  • US Trade Balance

Wednesday

The UK’s annual budget is released at lunchtime and will no doubt come under scrutiny.  With details of what Brexit will consist of still causing issues within parliament, the budget will take some attention away from this for a short period, as all will make their own decisions on the budgets impact. The announcement of the budget could cause further uncertainty for the Pound. The US will look to the private reading of the ADP employment figure hitting the wires, which could give insight into what is going to be seen for the NFP release on Friday. 

  • UK Annual Budget
  • German Industrial production MoM
  • US ADP Employment figure

Thursday

The European Central Bank rate decision and press conference will come into focus on Thursday.  Inflation for the Eurozone is now rising faster than forecasted by the ECB and markets are now expecting some form of action to be taken to combat this.  The Head of the ECB Mario Draghi will speak after the rate decision and his comments on whether there will or will not be a move, could see volatility for the Euro. 

  • China CPI YoY
  • Euro ECB Rate Decision
  • Euro ECB Press Conference

Friday

Friday is the most anticipated day of 2017 so far, as the release of the Non-Farm figure could point to whether the FOMC will raise rates for the first time this year.  Expectations are for around 185k jobs to be added for January and the unemployment rate to stand at 4.7%.  The Greenback is no doubt going to see some volatility in the lead up to and release of this data.  From the UK, the monthly Manufacturing Production gauge is set to show a slowdown of -0.6%.

  • UK Manufacturing Production MoM
  • US Non-Farm Employment figure
  • US Unemployment Rate
  • US Average Earnings