Will Fed Chair Yellen leave the door open for September?
Today there won’t be any economic data releases in the markets, but the focus will be on the Jackson Hole Symposium starting at the end of this week. Last week’s FOMC minutes revealed a divide between Fed members on when and if action is to be taken this year at all, and subsequently the Greenback lost ground. Hawkish comments from Fed members John Williams and Stanley Fischer over the weekend saw markets support the Dollar. San Francisco Fed president John Williams, said in his speech that September’s FOMC meeting is still expected. This was followed by Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer stating in a speech that unemployment is close to its natural rate and the Fed are close to their targets. On Friday, the focus will be on Fed Chair Janet Yellen where investors will watch her speech at the Jackson Hole to see if Yellen will indicate whether the FOMC meeting in September is still in play for a possible rate rise to be seen.
The main economic data releases will be in the form of Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI’s from Germany and Euro zone. The powerhouse of the single currency zone Germany, is set to see both PMI readings remain constant in July at around 53.7 for the manufacturing sector and 54.3 for services. The main reading to be published from the Eurozone is forecast to show figures for June and July. Later in the day, US New Home Sales will hit the wires with a slight fall back of 575k expected for July.
- German Flash Manufacturing PMI
- German Flash Services PMI
- Euro Flash Manufacturing PMI
- Euro Flash Services PMI
- US New Home Sales
Another day with few data releases. The only top tier data release will come from the US as the Oil Inventories figure is published, which looks at the number of barrels stored by US companies and gives an insight into the demand and production of manufacturers. Also from the US, there will be further insight into the housing market with the release of Existing Home Sales. Markets are expecting July’s figure to be in line with June’s 5.57m.
- US Existing Home Sales
- US Oil Inventories
- German Second Reading of Q2 GDP
Data releases will begin to pick up as markets open to the German Ifo Business Climate which will be published at 9am. With robust and strong data releases from Germany lately it is expected to increase to 108.5, up slightly from previous 108.3 but still a move in the right direction. Across the pond in the afternoon markets will see possibly the biggest report of the week posted, as the Durable Goods Orders for July is expected to rebound to 3.5% from June’s disappointing -3.9%. The services PMI is the last economic data released from the States before the Jackson Hole Symposium kicks off for three days.
- German Ifo Business Climate
- US Durable Goods Orders
- US Core Durable Goods Orders
- US Services PMI
- Start of Jackson hole Symposium
The UK’s economy comes back into the spotlight in the morning as the second release of Q2’s GDP hits the wires. Although markets are expecting no change from the first reading of 0.6%, with the Brexit vote and the change in business sentiment there could be a chance that something different is seen. In the afternoon the focus of the markets will turn to the US were the second reading of Q2 GDP is going to be seen and possibly fall to 1.1% from the original 1.2%. After this, the real focus will be on Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech at the Jackson Hole, where all will be watching to see if a rate hike is back on the table for September’s meeting.
- UK Second Q2 GDP
- US Second Q2 GDP
- US Fed Yellen Speaking