Will the UK CPI put strain on the pound

Yesterday’s markets

24th March 2015

  • CBI Industrial order expectations
  • EUR ECB President Draghi speaks
  • USD Existing home sales 4.88m
  • EUR Consumer confidence
  • USD FOMC Member Fischer speaks

No major data was released yesterday but we did have Mario Draghi, the head of the ECB speak at the European Parliament in Brussels. Draghi stated that inflation for the Euro will remain low and possibly in negative territory in the coming months ahead; again due to the influence of the low oil prices. He did state that inflation is due to gradually increase by the end of the year as demand will aggregate by the lower euro exchange rate and a recovery of oil prices from the current troughs. Mario Draghi also confirmed that the QE is on course to reach a total of 60 billion euros for March and that the implementation has been very smooth and liquidity remains. 

 

Today’s markets

23rd March 2015

  • CPI HSBC Flash manufacturing 49.2
  • EUR German flash manufacturing 52.4
  • EUR German flash services PMI 55.3
  • GBP CPI 
  • GBP PPI
  • GBP RPI
  • USD CPI
  • USD Core CPI

Today sees the release of the inflation figure from the U.K. at 9.30am. With the gauge already at its lowest level since records started, reaching 0.3%, the reading for today is expected to drop further to 0.1%.  BoE governor Mark Carney has forecast inflation to fall further this year amid the sharp depreciation of oil prices and the falling cost of foods. However if it falls further than economists are forecasting, the pound could weaken off sharply. Expect volatility as this high tier data will be closely watched by traders.

Other data released today will see the powerhouse of Europe Germany, post Manufacturing and Service PMI figures which are both forecast to increase. Shortly after the Eurozone  release their Manufacturing and Services PMI gauges, both of these readings are forecast to continue to post above 50 and remain in expansion.

From across the pond the CPI monthly figures will be released in the afternoon.  With the dollar on the backfoot after the Fed minutes last Wednesday evening, all data released from the U.S will be heavily scrutinised.