Knowledge centre

Searching for the bottom of the global slowdown 2

With so little actual market action over the past several days, a lot of focus is invariably drawn towards political risks and the dissection of central banker views.

A tough job in China

This weekend’s intensification of the Hong Kong protests reminds us that the Chinese authorities have more pressing problems than the US-China trade dispute.

The economic effects of a Johnson Brexit

The Pound has been stuck in a rut while UK political parties campaign across the country, but the upcoming debates may move the Pound out of its recent range if support starts to concentrate.

Big bonfire of cash

Other than a few repeat headlines, there is very little moving the market right now. Yesterday, each of the five Federal Reserve speakers stuck to the ‘wait-and-see’ script, indicating the central bank was happy to shift into neutral.

Under pressure

It was only in yesterday’s commentary that we highlighted emerging market weakness, and then overnight, Chinese data materially undershot forecasts. Fixed asset investment, Industrial Production and Retails Sales data were all worse than expected.

Closed eyes to correction dangers

As the market becomes more secure about a conclusion to the interminable US-China trade dispute, risk assets—like equities—are continuing higher on a wave of enthusiasm.

Waiting for clues

We’re just over four weeks away from what could be a Brexit-making general election, and as such, the Pound is jittery to every political twist and turn. Earlier this month, Brexit Party leader, Nigel Farage

Marking an important anniversary with a glimmer of hope

On Saturday the 9th of November, 30 years ago, the Berlin wall came down and unified the modern-day economic powerhouse of Europe. It began an era of strong growth and even stronger industrial production, which made Germany one of the most dominant manufacturing nations in the world.

Moody's downgrade

The UK’s main political parties will face new headwinds as they base their December election campaigns around an increase in fiscal spending due to Britain’s sovereign credit risk.

View from the Desk

Global Reach Senior Corporate Dealer, John Mullens, discusses the Pound's recent big moves, Brexit, and US-China developments.

Forging a trail forward

It feels like the market is sitting at a traffic light, waiting for it to turn green. Christine Lagarde is carefully searching for the gas pedal in the Eurozone, the various UK election candidates are also promising (or perhaps over-promising) fiscal investment, while the US is only trying to lift its foot of the brake.

Forging a trail forward 2

It feels like the market is sitting at a traffic light, waiting for it to turn green. Christine Lagarde is carefully searching for the gas pedal in the Eurozone, the various UK election candidates are also promising (or perhaps over-promising) fiscal investment, while the US is only trying to lift its foot of the brake.

Considering the factors 3

It’s been a long time since the Bank of England was able to set monetary policy in the traditional manner, without Brexit casting a fog over potential economic byways.

There’s a new boss in town

Speaking in Berlin yesterday evening, Christine Lagarde, the new European Central Bank President, echoed Mario Draghi’s much-derided line from the September ECB Press conference; without fiscal stimulus, it is unlikely the common currency will rebound.

There’s a new boss in town 3

Speaking in Berlin yesterday evening, Christine Lagarde, the new European Central Bank President, echoed Mario Draghi’s much-derided line from the September ECB Press conference; without fiscal stimulus, it is unlikely the common currency will rebound.

Sealing the deal

One of the biggest threats to global economic growth is arguably closer to a resolution than it’s ever been, and the optimism is clearly shown in today’s asset prices.

With fresh eyes

Sitting day in, day out behind our computers and watching the economic day flow past provides a good deal of feeling for the overall trend, but it also tends to feed into some natural cognitive biases.

When the going gets tough, the cuts keep coming

It’s been a challenging year for Jerome Powell at the Federal Reserve. The head of the US central bank has been locked in a tug of war with markets since December 2018 when, safe to say, they disagreed with his decision to raise interest rates to 2.5%.

Frightful Chinese data

Our hopes for the Federal Reserve interest rate announcement came true. Fed chairman Jerome Powell announced a 25Bps cut to the Fed target rate but also said the Federal Open Market Committee will monitor upcoming data to determine whether further action is required.

Waiting for the Fed

The Trump impeachment is finding new legs after a military source confirmed the transcript of the President's call with the Ukrainian President was missing crucial information; yet, it doesn’t matter.

The election calculus

Yesterday, Boris Johnson suffered his third defeat on the path to a general election but is determined to try a different tack—passing an amendment for the proposed date—which has a lower bar to success.

Changing the subject 2

Introduce us to a person who can’t get enough Brexit talk, we dare you!

Changing the subject

Introduce us to a person who can’t get enough Brexit talk, we dare you!

House of mirrors

In many ways, Brexit has proved to be like a funfair house of mirrors. Every time we open a door and take a step forward, we’re confronted by a fresh set of mirrors, and there’s no end in sight.

Why manufacturing matters

The spill over of weakness from the manufacturing sector to the consumer has been one of the biggest economic risks to developed nations this year, and it appears to be crystallising in the Eurozone’s largest economy, Germany.

Goodbye, Draghi

The Brexit season finale

Finally, and historically, MPs have voted in favour of a specific plan for the UK to leave the European Union. At 7pm on Tuesday, Boris Johnson’s withdrawal agreement bill achieved a 30-vote majority in the House of Commons.

The end of the beginning

Every market pundit has their respective measuring tape out trying to figure out where Sterling might head given tonight’s rather binary outcome (pass or fail of the withdrawal agreement).

It all stems from credibility

Maybe its déjà vu, but October 2019 feels like a moment of change. If you follow major headlines, a Brexit withdrawal agreement is nearing a vote in Parliament, and there’s a reasonable chance of passage; and Chinese negotiators have confirmed the ongoing trade talks are making tangible steps towards a partial trade deal.

Getting Brexit done

Today, Johnson will again attempt to win Parliament’s backing for his Brexit deal amid growing confidence that he has enough support to pass the motion. Foreign Secretary, Dominic Raab, told the BBC, ‘we appear to have the numbers to get it through’.

The font of rumour

The endless font of Brexit negotiation rumour has resulted in a spectacular series of market panegyrics.

New headlines, new sources of volatility

The past few days of Brexit negotiations have left us with little besides the odd soundbite in which two sides are either ‘making progress’ or ‘obstacles remain’ towards an exit arrangement.

Preventing the public airing of positions

After all of last week’s action, this week is taking a more contemplative tone as markets parse the implications of a 'limited trade agreement' with China, and stop-start Brexit negotiations.

A race against time

The ongoing Brexit saga took a positive turn at the end of last week, but there’s still a long, long way to achieve a tangible deal. When Boris Johnson and Leo Varadkar agreed that they could ‘see a pathway to a possible deal’ on Thursday, markets naturally overreacted, driving Sterling to pre-Johnson levels against the Euro and Dollar.

A brief intermission

On Friday, our commentary attempted to contextualise upcoming Brexit risk and demonstrated that the risk of Sterling devaluation wasn’t gone, but has simply been pushed out into 2020.

A healthy dose of scepticism

Just when we thought a hard Brexit was a foregone conclusion and presumed goal of the dynamic duo, Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings, a story has been released which hints at a workable solution between Irish PM Leo Varadkar and PM Johnson.

The Brexit effect

We look at the effect Brexit's had on the Pound, as well as considering what could lie ahead for the British currency amid chaotic UK politics.

The Brexit home stretch

Last week we wrote about the trifecta of poor UK Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data releases and how they augur a decline in UK economic prospects. Let’s refresh our collective memories to set the scene

The situation on the ground 2

The Bank of International Settlements (BIS) conducted a review of ‘unconventional’ monetary policy tools over the past decade and concluded that the effectiveness of such tools is not diminished in the current zero, or near-zero, interest rate environment. This is a pretty important point for Fed watchers.

Painting the picture of deterioration

It’s hard to get an objective frame of reference for global growth unless you look at prices. We’ll often hear a steady drip, drip, drip of economic data points—some measuring the past and some looking forward—but most people would be hard-pressed to say how that all tallies and paints a picture of deterioration.