Time to reconsider
22 Nov 2022The gloomy prognosis of the UK economy has reopened the debate over Brexit, more than six years after Britain voted to leave the EU...
Read More
The B word
21 Nov 2022Brexit is back in focus as Rishi Sunak looks for a long-term solution to the problem...
Read More
Reality check
21 Nov 2022Stocks are lower this morning as China introduces tighter Coronavirus measures, and the Dollar Index is trading 50 basis points higher...
Read More
Cautious optimism
18 Nov 2022Consumer confidence improved in November as Rishi Sunak's newly formed government appears to be creating some stability...
Read More
The balancing act
17 Nov 2022Jeremy Hunt faces a tough test in his Autumn Budget today as he looks to reassure markets that he's the man to stabilise the UK's finances without dealing a devastating blow to public spending...
Read More
UK prices continue to soar
16 Nov 2022Prices in the UK continue their upward spiral as UK inflation hit 11.1% in October, a 41-year high. The print came in much higher than the median estimate of 10.7% among economists...
Read More
Dollar dwindles
15 Nov 2022After the Federal Reserve implemented its fourth consecutive 75 basis point rate hike, the headline Consumer Price Index in the US is finally showing signs of subsiding...
Read More
Retaining control
14 Nov 2022The Office for Budget Responsibility has updated its public borrowing forecasts and estimates that by 2026-27, government borrowing will raise close to £100bn...
Read More
Feeling the pressure
14 Nov 2022Inflationary pressures, currently causing a headache for politicians and the Bank of England, are set to get worse as wages grow at the fastest rate...
Read More
Light at the end of the tunnel
11 Nov 2022Inflationary pressure on the Federal Reserve eased off yesterday as the closely watched US Consumer Price Index came in at 7.7% for the year leading up to October, marginally below economists’ expectations...
Read More
Knife edge
10 Nov 2022As the White House prepares for heavy losses in the House, Republican leaders have suggested they will use the debt ceiling as leverage to force their own policies through such cuts to federal spending...
Read More
Narrow margins
09 Nov 2022With polls closed across much of the US, the midterm elections might yield a tighter result than expected...
Read More
Tightening the purse strings
08 Nov 2022UK consumers are changing their spending patterns amid a surge in prices as the focus shifts more towards essentials from luxury items...
Read More
False alarm
07 Nov 2022Official Halifax data released this morning showed a fall in UK house prices for the second consecutive month, taking the annual rate from a rise of 9.8% in September to 8.3% the next month...
Read More
Mortgages feel the effects
04 Nov 2022Despite the Bank of England raising its base interest rate to three per cent yesterday, the single most aggressive hike in 23 years, the central bank governor, Andrew Bailey, appeared to suggest in the aftermath that markets had somewhat overestimated their forecasts for future rises...
Read More
BoE day
03 Nov 2022The UK central bank is flying blind today in the absence of Sunak and Hunt's Autumn Budget, which has been delayed to mid-November, but markets are expecting the Bank of England to follow in the Fed's footsteps and opt for a 0.75% hike interest rate rise...
Read More
Powell takes the stage
02 Nov 2022The key in this meeting, as always, will be the language. It’s to be expected that rate increases will continue for the foreseeable, but any hint of more moderated moves is likely to move markets...
Read More
No other way
01 Nov 2022The Prime Minister and Chancellor cannot rely on spending cuts and will need to increase the tax burden on everybody, although 'those with the broadest shoulders should be asked to bear the greatest burden' according to the Treasury...
Read More
Between a rock and a hard place
31 Oct 2022Despite looming global recession fears, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are likely to unveil mammoth 75 basis point hikes this week in the face of soaring inflationary pressure...
Read More
Brazil goes left
31 Oct 2022Latin America's largest nation will have a new President take office on January 1st next year after rightwing leader Jair Bolsonaro was beaten by less than 2%...
Read More
Plugging the hole
28 Oct 2022Jeremy Hunt and newly appointed PM Rishi Sunak have begun exploring ways to plug the £45bn hole in public finances left by Liz Truss and her government during her short stint in power...
Read More
A little more time
27 Oct 2022The Government's fiscal plan has been pushed from October 31st to November 17th to allow more time for the Prime Minister and Chancellor to make the 'right decisions' on managing the economy...
Read More
Rishi reshuffle
26 Oct 2022The Pound continues to strengthen today as the market shakes off the Liz Truss premium that was baked into UK financial assets just last week...
Read More
Cleanup job
25 Oct 2022Sunak prophesized much of the chaos that ensued after Truss’s radical economic plan, lending him credibility with fellow MPs, but it’s still uncertain whether he can reunite a deeply divided Conservative Party...
Read More
Last Chance Saloon
24 Oct 2022UK gilts have rallied in early trade while the Pound gets some much-needed support as markets anticipate the introduction of a more fiscally responsible Prime Minister...
Read More
Second chance
24 Oct 2022Former Chancellor and runner-up in the previous leadership contest, Rishi Sunak, is the clear frontrunner to succeed Truss after amassing 144 Tory supporters...
Read More
Unfit for service
21 Oct 2022Former Chancellor and Tory Party leadership rival Rishi Sunak is the current favourite replacement after he correctly foreshadowed Truss panicking markets if she were to go ahead with her plethora of unfunded tax cuts...
Read More
Musical chairs
20 Oct 2022The UK Government was thrown into further turmoil on Wednesday afternoon as the Home Secretary, Suella Braverman, handed in her resignation after 43 days of service and was subsequently replaced by former transport secretary Grant Shapps...
Read More
Higher and higher
19 Oct 2022UK inflation jumped back to a 40-year high in September, underscored by surging food prices. The year-on-year reading of 10.1% was led by a 14.8% rise in food prices, in addition to furniture and household goods rising 10.7%...
Read More
On the brink
18 Oct 2022The UK could be paying the price for Truss’s radical experiment for some time, with markets levying increased borrowing costs on UK government debt which could cost £10bn a year by 2025. UK growth is expected to decline in the next few quarters, but a continued loss of market confidence could drive a severe downturn...
Read More
On the Hunt
17 Oct 2022Amongst other things, in the past week, we have seen the Russia-Ukraine war ramp up in intensity, OPEC trying to push up the price of oil, the highest US core inflation figure since the 1980's heading into the mid-term elections, and China's Xi Jinping targeting reunification with Taiwan...
Read More
Credibility renewal
17 Oct 2022The new UK Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, is expected to reverse a large proportion of the tax measures introduced in his predecessor Kwasi Kwarteng's heavily scrutinised mini-Budget last month...
Read More
180 degrees
14 Oct 2022After spending two days in Washington receiving criticism from the IMF and other Finance Ministers over his unfunded £46 billion tax cut package, UK Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng has left the capital early to address the UK's economic crisis...
Read More
Kwarteng dismisses bank tax
13 Oct 2022The 'tax' could have raised tens of billions of pounds for public finances; however, after meeting with senior bank executives, Kwarteng has turned his back on the plan...
Read More
Risking credibility
12 Oct 2022Britain is almost certainly already in recession after the economy posted a 0.3% drop in output for the month of August. The fall in GDP was led by a sharp decline in manufacturing activity along with a slight contraction in services. The only way for the UK to avoid a Q3 recession would be for September output to rise 1.1%, which is unlikely given the extra public holiday and period of mourning for the late Queen Elizabeth’s funeral. Analysts predict the recession will last into early 2023 at least, with consumers and businesses facing tough conditions in the upcoming months...
Read More
Falling apart at the seams
11 Oct 2022It would, quite frankly, be an understatement to say that all is not well in the governing Conservative Party. Just look at markets for anything UK PLC-related over the past couple of weeks to see how confidence evaporated after the 'mini-Budget'...
Read More
Off the scale
11 Oct 2022The Chancellor will need to find at least £60bn in savings to shore up confidence by the time he presents his fiscal plan on October 31st. The findings by the institute of fiscal studies could force the government to cut public services further despite years of austerity following the Global Financial Crisis a decade ago...
Read More
Potential counteroffensive?
10 Oct 2022A data-light day will see watchful eyes turn to the IMF and World Bank meetings today to discuss high inflation, the impact of monetary policy tightening, and the financial impact of the war in Ukraine. Asian stocks opened in the red this morning, with US counterparts expected to follow suit after the White House unveiled export control measures on Chinese companies from certain semiconductor chips made with US equipment.
Read More
On the defensive
07 Oct 2022A number of Federal Reserve officials reaffirmed the US central bank’s strong intent to pull inflation back to its 2% target yesterday. Median estimates of the 19 policymakers see at least another 1.25% of hikes by the end of 2022, which would take the benchmark rate north of 4%...
Read More
Central banks step in
06 Oct 2022UK bond markets remain tentative as we approach the 14th of October when the Bank of England support is set to be withdrawn. Of the £100 billion made available to calm markets, only a small percentage has been deployed, around £3.7bn so far, which appears to have done enough to stop yields spiralling. With quantitative tightening set to begin at the end of this month, many expect these plans to be pushed back again to prevent further angst in the UK pensions market...
Read More