Brexit in focus
While there may be a plethora of economic data due out in the week ahead, most of the Pound’s movement is expected to come from political developments. On Tuesday, Theresa May’s Brexit deal will be voted on and is largely expected to face defeat. This would open up another vote on Wednesday as to whether the UK should leave the EU without a deal. If the resounding outcome of this is no, then Thursday will see another vote on whether or not to extend Article 50. Any signs Theresa May’s leadership may be threatened could also create Sterling volatility. UK growth numbers will also be revealed, which may impact Sterling’s movement.
Euro falls on stimulus measures
The European Central Bank (ECB) made a dovish statement last week, and the Euro softened to multi-year lows at the prospect of further stimulus measures to encourage growth in the struggling economy. This morning has shown German factory production has weakened. After a difficult 2018, the German economy is stumbling into 2019 and is yet to pick up the pace. German Industrial Production has weakened by -0.8% in January on the month, following December’s -0.40% contraction. It’s not an overly busy week for domestic data in the currency bloc, but Eurozone Industrial Production figures will be out in Wednesday’s trading, following by the final Eurozone inflation reading for February on Friday.
US labour data disappoints
The US Dollar was able to climb during some of last week’s sessions as other currencies softened. However, Friday saw a surprise slowing of US job creation, which may be an anomaly or a potential signal that growth could be slowing. US Advance Retail Sales will be out on Monday, followed by highly influential inflation data on Tuesday. Wednesday continues with US Durable Goods Orders data, and Friday finishes the week with high-tier sentiment numbers.
Australian economic growth slows
The Australian Dollar came under pressure last week when news hit that Australian economic growth had slowed in the last quarter of 2018. This week, both Business and Consumer Confidence stats will be out, as well as Inflation Expectations data which may all give the Aussie some opportunity to move. However, global risk appetite will likely create fluctuations too.
Dairy prices rise
The New Zealand Dollar was offered some support at points last week when the price of New Zealand’s largest commodity, dairy, rose significantly more than forecasts had anticipated. Thursday could be an important day for the Kiwi Dollar when the latest manufacturing figures reach markets.
Canada reports more people in employment
Last week, Canada’s Change in Employment numbers surprised markets when February recorded a +55.9K figure instead of the -2.5K markets had expected to see. It’s a quiet week ahead for Canadian data too, but Thursday will see the New House Price Index released ahead of Existing Home Sales numbers on Friday.